Soil microbiology · LUCAS and RMQS

Acidity explains most of it.
Metals explain far less than we expected.

Two national soil surveys, 2,334 sites with sequencing, one question: what actually shapes which microbes live where? This report walks through the answer piece by piece, with the data interactive at every step.

2,334sites with sequencing
0.43variance explained by pH, LUCAS
0.01variance explained by copper, after pH
4.5%of sites changed land use, 1990 to 2018
01 · The material

Two surveys, two countries, one shared design

LUCAS samples farmland and countryside across the European Union; RMQS samples France on a regular grid. Both record soil chemistry at the same place they take a DNA sample, which is rare and is what makes this comparison possible.

Site locations

Hover any point to read its acidity. The map is a plain projection with country outlines, deliberately simple so the sampling pattern is the visible thing.

02 · The dominant signal

Acidity is the master variable

Take the whole community of a sample, reduce it to a single axis of variation, and that axis is almost a pH meter. In LUCAS the first axis explains 24.6% of all differences between samples and correlates −0.92 with pH; in RMQS it explains 21.9% and correlates −0.86.

Community axis 1 against soil pH

Points animate in by acidity, so the gradient draws itself. Lower pH sits at the left; the community axis responds almost linearly across four pH units.

Read the axis as "how different this community is from the average", not as a health score. A site at the far left is not worse, it is acidic.
03 · What else survives

Everything at once: metals shrink, land use vanishes

Fit all the variables together and ask what each one adds that the others do not. pH keeps a large share. Copper keeps a small but real one. Land use, which looks powerful on its own, keeps nothing.

Variance explained: alone, then with pH accounted for

Bars animate when you switch. Land use falls from 0.36 to zero because European farmland sits on alkaline soils and forest on acid ones: the two variables are nearly the same variable.

04 · Metals, one at a time

Different metals behave differently

Choose a metal and see its relationship with the community. Then switch on the pH control and watch how much of it was acidity wearing a metal's coat.

Community axis against metal concentration

05 · A broken measurement

One dataset's cadmium is not cadmium

A widely used European soil dataset reports cadmium values that disagree with an independent geochemical survey by a factor of twelve in Finland and ten in Poland, while agreeing in France and Italy. That pattern, wrong in some countries and right in others, is what a scrambled column looks like.

Reported cadmium divided by independent survey, by country

A value of 1.0 means the two surveys agree. Bars are drawn against a log scale anchored at 1.

The same table's copper, zinc, lead, nickel and chromium all agree with the independent survey within a factor of about 1.5. Only cadmium departs, which is why we can name the faulty column rather than doubt the database.
06 · Where metals do matter

The substrate decides whether a metal is felt

On sandy, weakly binding soils the same metal load sits in solution and the community responds. On carbonate and clay-rich soils it is held, and the community barely moves.

Copper's association with the community, within each parent material

Values are partial correlations with acidity held constant, so a bigger bar means copper still mattered after pH was removed. Unconsolidated soils lead; carbonate and siliciclastic soils sit near zero.

07 · The short version

What to take away

Acidity first. It is the strongest single predictor in both surveys and survives every control we applied.

Metals second, and mostly copper. Once pH is accounted for, copper keeps one to one and a half percent of independent explanatory power; zinc and lead keep less and are not consistently detectable.

Land use is a proxy. Its apparent 36 percent is soil chemistry in disguise.

Availability chemistry did not help. Free metal ions, dissolved metal and reactive pools all performed no better than total metal, and usually worse.

Data quality is a result in itself. The cadmium finding came from an internal coherence check that costs nothing to run and should be routine.